China
The manufacturing engine of the world, whose post-2008 rise was deliberately engineered by the Bank of International Settlements to save the global economy. In Jiang’s framework, China is powerful but vulnerable - dependent on energy imports that flow through chokepoints controlled by others.
Role in the Framework
China is the middle tier of the price-hierarchy - adding massive manufacturing value but constrained by:
- Dependence on Middle Eastern oil (via the strait-of-hormuz-chokepoint)
- Dependence on US market access
- Vulnerability of mega-cities to disruption
- Food and water scarcity
The BIS Connection
China’s rise wasn’t organic. After the 2008 crisis, the Bank of International Settlements deliberately altered the RMB-USD exchange rate to signal the world to trade with China. This was a coordinated decision by transnational-capital to shift the global center of gravity eastward and keep the system afloat after the US cracked.
This makes China’s position precarious - it was elevated by the same forces that can pull the rug.
Motivations
- Diversify markets away from US control (BRICS, Belt and Road)
- Secure energy supply lines independent of US-controlled chokepoints
- Avoid becoming a military hegemon (let others bear that cost)
- Survive global instability
Predicted Fate
China faces severe instability when the Middle East collapses:
- Oil supply cut when Strait of Hormuz closes
- Mega-cities are vulnerable to food/water/energy disruption
- Must depend heavily on Russia or North America for resources
- Belt and Road becomes critical survival infrastructure rather than expansion tool
China doesn’t collapse in Jiang’s framework, but it doesn’t emerge as a dominant power either. It’s too dependent on global trade flows that are being deliberately destroyed.
Related
- price-hierarchy - China’s position in the tiers
- engineered-boom-bust-cycles - China’s rise as engineered recovery
- strait-of-hormuz-chokepoint - China’s energy vulnerability
- russia-actor - Key partner for alternative supply
- iran-actor - Critical for Belt and Road corridor