Predictive History

Law of the Jungle

2 min read

Law of the Jungle

Core idea: In geopolitics, ideological and religious differences matter less than raw strength. The strong respect each other and prey on the weak. The weak cannot unite effectively and must seek protection from the strong.

The Rules

  1. The strong respect each other. Nations with real military and economic power will eventually negotiate pragmatic deals with each other, regardless of ideology. Enemies on paper become partners in practice when both are strong.

  2. The strong prey on the weak. Weak nations are not partners - they’re resources. Their sovereignty lasts only as long as a stronger patron chooses to protect them.

  3. The weak cannot unite. Weak nations share a common interest in collective defense but are structurally incapable of coordinating it. Each weak nation hopes to free-ride on others’ efforts or curry favor with the strong.

Application: Iran and Israel

This is Jiang’s most counterintuitive prediction. Iran and Israel are ideological enemies - Shia theocracy vs. Zionist state. But both are strong. According to the Law of the Jungle:

  • They will eventually bypass weaker neighbors (the gcc-states-actor)
  • They will sign a pragmatic peace treaty
  • They will partition control of the Middle East between them
  • The weaker GCC states will be absorbed as client states (CLAIM-011-israel-absorbs-gcc)

The ideology is real, but power is more real. Strong actors find accommodation because the cost of destroying each other exceeds the benefit.

Application: The GCC

Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, Oman are wealthy but weak - dependent on imported military equipment, foreign labor, and US security guarantees. According to the Law:

  • They cannot unite to defend themselves (too much internal rivalry)
  • They must continuously seek protection from the strong (historically the US)
  • When the US withdraws, they become prey for the remaining strong actors (Israel, Iran)
  • Their wealth delays but does not prevent this outcome

Key Insight

Ideology is the language of alliance; power is the grammar. Nations speak in terms of shared values, but act according to relative strength. The Law of the Jungle strips away the narrative and reveals the structural logic underneath.

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