Game Theory — Final Examination Q&A
Summary
Professor Jiang’s final class at his school before departing to pursue his global audience full-time. A 2-hour Q&A session answering questions from Substack founding members and YouTube viewers. This is his “final exam” — a direct restatement and defense of all major predictions, with explicit falsifiability criteria offered for the first time.
Key Data Points
Direct Claim Confirmations
- Draft: “I do believe the draft is coming. Not only that, but I believe that the draft is coming to many countries including Canada, Australia, Europe.” Draft purpose = social reorganization (train idle young men), not just war mobilization.
- Trump 3rd term: “I predict Trump will get a third term.” Used as primary falsifiability test — Trump’s death would “change a lot of my predictions.”
- US-Iran war: Reconfirmed — US ground invasion of Iran destroys both USA and Iran. “The only person left standing will be Israel at the end.”
- Civil war: “A civil war is going to happen and there’s really nothing anyone can do right now to stop the civil war from happening.”
- Pax Judaica over Pax Silica: “Behind Paxilica will be Pax Judaica.” Tech networks require nation-state military backing. Israel backs any AI trade order.
- Russia post-Putin: After Putin dies — internal friction → factions decide they “cannot agree on succession” → Russia expands militarily outward (Ukraine, Baltic states, Central Asia) → imperial exhaustion.
- Putin longevity: “I think he’s going to be around for another 20 years.”
- USD collapse: Dollar becomes basket of currencies (USD + gold + British pounds + Swiss francs). US government defaulting on debt = Ponzi scheme collapse.
Falsifiability Criteria (explicit for first time)
Things that would invalidate Jiang’s predictions:
- US midterms surprise him in unexpected way
- Trump dies
- Democratic Party picks a revolutionary, grassroots, charismatic leader (he calls this “the most hopeless” scenario)
New Geopolitical Notes
- New Zealand, Australia, Canada = British resource colonies (not nation-states). Populations being replaced by Indian/Chinese/Filipino immigrants. No war participation expected but civil conflict from replacement immigration.
- China: “hallucination of a hallucination” — on decline, not resilient like Japan. Never seen China be resilient.
- Japan: Historically unique resilience — survived Mongolian invasions, Meiji Restoration, WWII reconstruction each in 20-30 years. Will do it again.
- India: Geopolitically bad position — large population, chaotic politics, resource constrained. Not optimistic.
- Space race, AI hype, alien invasion = “lies perpetuated by the elite.” Society will collapse before space becomes viable.
Meta/Framework Notes
- Trump is “stupid” and not playing 4D chess — empire decline forces the use of force as soft power fails.
- People in charge are “psychopaths” — the crazier you are, the more geopolitical legitimacy you have (Israel, Putin, North Korea, Trump).
- Democratic party = “most hopeless” institution in America.
- AI designed to make humans worthless/redundant → explains public resistance to AI.
- US-China trade war could collapse both nations; that’s not the point — the point is to win.
Bias Assessment
Primary source. Professor Jiang is the originator of the predictions tracked here. No external editorial bias. Self-confirmed beliefs presented as predictions. Consistent with prior episodes.