IEA Oil Market Report — May 2026
Summary
Brent crude averaged 46/b above February pre-war levels and highest since June 2022. Global oil supply declined 12.8 mb/d since February. IEA projects $106/b average in May-June. World demand contracting 420 kb/d YoY. Stagflation risk identified across OECD economies.
Key Data Points
- Brent crude April 2026: 70 pre-war)
- Supply loss since Feb: 12.8 mb/d total
- April supply: 95.1 mb/d (down 1.8 mb/d from March)
- Inventory drawdown: 8.5 mb/d projected Q2 2026
- Demand contraction: -420 kb/d YoY in 2026; -2.45 mb/d in Q2
- US headline inflation: 3.8% heading toward 5% by autumn
- Stagflation: rising cost-push inflation + weak growth + high government debt
Bias Assessment
IEA is authoritative intergovernmental energy body. High methodological rigor. Possible mild Western-economy bias in framing.