Trump Tariff Regime — Largest Tax Increase Since 1993, Reshoring Push
Summary
Trump has implemented the largest tariff increases as % of GDP since 1993 ($1,500/household). IEEPA tariffs struck down by Supreme Court, replaced with Section 122 surcharges. DOGE dismantled ~9% of federal workforce. Industrial production up, steel surpassed Japan. But mass reshoring remains “distant reality.” This supports both the “Technate” and “regional mercantilism” theses.
Key Quotes
“The largest US tax increase as a percent of GDP since 1993” “For the first time in over 25 years, the United States surpassed Japan in crude steel production” “Progress on reshoring has been lackluster” DOGE: ~212,000 federal employees cut (~9% of civilian workforce)
Source Credibility Assessment
Tax Foundation is nonpartisan and authoritative on fiscal matters. USTR and marketplace.org provide official and balanced reporting.
Relevance to Claims
- CLAIM-008-trump-technate: SUPPORTS. Trump is aggressively dismantling federal institutions (DOGE), imposing protectionist tariffs, and pushing reshoring — all consistent with the “Technate” thesis of rebuilding a self-sufficient North American bloc. The Supreme Court pushback and slow reshoring show obstacles.
- CLAIM-012-regional-mercantilism: SUPPORTS. Tariffs, industrial policy, and protectionism are exactly the mechanisms Jiang predicted for the shift to regional mercantilism. The WEF “multi-nodal trade patchwork” framing essentially describes what Jiang calls regional mercantilism.